By Riley Stuart, ABC
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: AFP
Over to you, Russia.
Confirmation Ukraine had agreed to a 30-day ceasefire proposal that would see hostilities with Russia paused is significant.
However, there's still plenty that needs to happen before the war, which has raged for more than three years, stops.
While both countries claim they want peace, there's previously been significant differences between what Kyiv and Moscow have said they'd be prepared to agree to.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is among those trying to broker the deal, and this week said "the ball is in Russia's court".
This is what we know about the negotiations so far.
What's in the proposal?
Although specifics of what Ukraine has agreed to haven't been made public, that doesn't mean all details are a mystery.
A meeting between delegations from Kyiv and Washington in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday was critical.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his team went into the summit with three key demands:
- An end to all aerial attacks (Ukraine and Russia fire missiles and drones at each other daily)
- Silence in the seas (safe transportation of shipping goods)
- Release of all prisoners of war and civilian detainees
- Although it's not clear whether they made it into the final proposal that Ukraine agreed to - Mr Zelenskyy wasn't actually at the meeting - it does provided clues as to where the negotiations started.
Multiple officials from Kyiv have previously ruled out signing a ceasefire agreement that included ceding any of the country's territory currently occupied by Russian forces.
However, on Wednesday, Mr Rubio told reporters that the meeting in Saudi Arabia had included "conversations about territorial concessions".
Ukraine is also currently occupying Russian territory in the Kursk region after a surprise attack last year, and this is seen as a potential bargaining chip in negotiations.
The US and Ukraine released a joint statement after Tuesday's meeting in Saudi Arabia which said while the proposal was for a 30-day ceasefire, it could lead to "lasting peace" and "be extended by mutual agreement of the parties".
What are the deal-breakers?
Analysts argue that unless both countries are prepared to make concessions, a ceasefire is unlikely to be signed any time soon.
Two obvious stumbling blocks are Ukraine's desire for security guarantees (that will deter Russia from attacking it again in the future), and territorial concessions.
Let's start with security guarantees. Polls have consistently outlined that this, along with the safe return of prisoners of war, is the main war-related issue Ukrainians care about.
Ukraine wants to make sure any peace deal with Russia includes measures that would enhance its protections against future attacks.
These could come in many forms. Perhaps the most extreme option is for Ukraine to be admitted to NATO. This would compel the alliance's other 32 member countries to join the fight in the event Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered another invasion.
Zelenskyy is keen to see his country join NATO (he's even offered to resign in exchange for membership), but Russia has made it clear it would see such a move as a red line.
Another potential security guarantee would be foreign troops and other military assets being stationed in Ukraine. The United Kingdom and France have already floated this idea. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has also ruled this option out as being unacceptable to his country.
The US has also said it's against Ukraine joining the alliance.
These security guarantees are a key hurdle to any peace agreement. Zelenskyy is unlikely to agree to anything that would be unpopular among Ukrainians (multiple polls have consistently outlined that a majority of Ukrainians would prefer to keep fighting Russia than agree to a ceasefire that could leave their country vulnerable to future attacks).
Another key issue is territorial concessions. Notwithstanding what Rubio said on Wednesday, Ukrainian officials have consistently maintained they won't agree to cede territory to Russia.
Moscow's military currently occupies about 20 per cent of Ukraine. Getting to that point has come at a considerable human and financial cost. It's estimated hundreds of thousands of its troops have been killed in the process.
Agreeing to hand the land back as part of a ceasefire deal would be at odds with how motivated Russia has been to redraw the map at, seemingly, any cost - both human and financial.
What happens next?
Rubio has said the US and Russia will "have contact" on Wednesday, but it's unclear when, or if, Moscow will provide its feedback.
US President Donald Trump told reporters on Wednesday that a delegation was en route to Moscow to continue discussions.
Flinders University analyst Dr Jessica Genauer told ABC's The World that it's unlikely Putin would accept this proposal as quickly as Zelenskyy did.
"Putin will probably hesitate to sign this proposal because President Putin doesn't want to look to his domestic Russian population as though he is able to be bossed around essentially by President Trump," she said.
"Part of Putin's narrative domestically is that he stands up to the United States, that Russia is just as strong as the United States even though we know that's not true economically or militarily, but domestically President Putin needs to reinforce that narrative."
She believed any agreement to the proposed ceasefire was "weeks away", with Putin likely to stall until he could sell any agreement to the Russian people.
Something else that could affect negotiations is the fact Putin's troops have been gaining ground, particularly in the Kursk region, in recent weeks.
The fact Ukraine holds Russian territory (albeit a much smaller quantity than the swathes of Ukraine that Russia's military occupies), is widely regarded as an important bargaining chip in peace negotiations.
This map shows how Moscow's military has regained control of hundreds of square kilometres of the country's territory in the months since Ukraine's surprise attack in August 2024.
A ceasefire would halt Russia's momentum in the area.
Stefan Wolff, a Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham, said while Russia would consider the proposal, the country's president had motivations to keep fighting.
"And at the same time, they will keep pushing very hard, both in the Kursk region, that they are trying to evict Ukrainian troops from the breach of it in inside the Russian Federation, but also pushing further in in mainland Ukraine, trying to capture all four of those regions that Putin is claiming as part of his his motives in Ukraine," he said.
As part of the meeting on Tuesday, the US has agreed to resume military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. These had been paused after a fiery meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump late last month.
Getting military aid and intelligence from the US will make it easier for Ukraine to defend itself against attacks and launch its own offensives on Russian targets - neither of which are particularly conducive to a ceasefire.
- ABC
