A lack of manpower and kit would hinder any NZDF attempts to help in Ukraine. File photo Photo: New Zealand Defence Force
A New Zealand military attache has been taking part in talks in Paris about Ukraine peacekeeping, but a soldier who was deployed in Afghanistan says NZ would have to scramble to raise a single company.
The Paris talks come after Russia warned Australia of "grave consequences" if it put boots on the ground in the "coalition of the willing" that the UK and France are assembling.
The NZ Defence Force's (NZDF) financial, equipment and personnel woes have been well documented.
New armoured Bushmaster trucks worth $100 million have been delivered - but a $50m+ upgrade to fit them with state of the art, shielded communications has hit delays.
New Zealand Remembrance Army managing director Simon Stormbom was a NATO liaison in Afghanistan who remains close to people in the forces, and he said he was worried.
"You'd want your best troops, you'd want to send your best and most trained people," he said.
"And that's what I would be concerned about - there's not a lot of them."
Defence would scramble to get just one company of 120-150 soldiers at that level together, let alone reserves and others for any follow-up deployment, which would be the usual procedure.
"We'd be a one-hit wonder."
The lack of manpower - with few reserve forces - was matched by lack of kit, which costs $10,000 per soldier, he added.
They might even have to ride with others, since the Bushmasters were not ready and the LAVs he witnessed used in Afghanistan were more than 20 years old.
The NZDF told RNZ the "urgent purchase" of "network-enabled" communications gear for the Bushmasters was approved in the 2023 Budget. But "Part 2 is yet to be approved" for the Network Enabled Army C4 Communications Integration project.
Strombom said New Zealand risked becoming a "liability" on peacekeeping partners.
"We'd have to be under some kind of coalition partner... I think we would looking to actually have vehicles from them. I can't see us logistically maintaining a fleet.
"The reality is we just don't have the capability."
'A depth of capacity'
Former defence minister Wayne Mapp had an opposing view.
"There is a depth of capacity in the NZDF to be able to do these sorts of jobs," he said.
Wayne Mapp. Photo: Pool / Fairfax Visuals
"None of this peacekeeping force is going to be a heavily armed force, that's just not their role. It's intended to observe, primarily."
Mapp said it was still very early days, with no peace agreement or ceasefire that peacekeeping demanded as a prerequisite.
He said the issues with the Bushmasters would be "sorted".
"It's not that difficult to sort these things," he said, adding that he was sure Defence Minister Judith Collins "was doing precisely that".
New Zealand had contributed to peacekeeping in Sinai for decades and was up to the task, he said.
The NZDF told MPs in December that it was cutting back on travel and international engagements, and would have to scale down some missions.
"The issue really is it takes us longer to prepare to do those missions and those deployments, and we might not be able to send the same number of people that we have previously sent or for as long," it said.
Treasury documents showed the defence force is in the middle of comms upgrades worth at least $80m.
They also showed it had a good record of keeping within budget, but the worst record for delayed projects of any of the big-spending public agencies being monitored. Five of the top 12 most delayed projects in September were defence projects.
What kind of force?
The Paris talks will help decide what a peacekeeping force would look like, and what risks it would face.
It would be more dangerous for a force meant to deter Russian aggression, rather than one that was there to monitor the situation.
Mapp said the latter would be more likely.
But the European Union Institute for Security Studies told RNZ the nature of Russian aggression meant "more than a peacekeeping force, any troops sent to Ukraine would be part of a deterrent force".
The closeness of any nations' troops to any buffer zone would also be a risk factor.
New Zealand has a history of doing a lot with a little, and of "cobbling" together peacekeeping forces. When defence researcher Josh Wineera served in Bosnia in the 1990s, "we had some rudimentary Vietnam era protected mobility vehicles, armoured personnel carriers".
"They had to have bolt on armour," he said.
"We had rudimentary communications."
Now a defence consultant and researcher, Wineera said such an approach would not cut it in Ukraine.
That buffer would be between two of the most lethal, modern - and now experienced - armies in the world. This was not a place that Wineera thought New Zealand peacekeepers were equipped for.
"Within Ukraine, it's a large country, there's lots of places of which a peacekeeping force might deploy different nations," Wineera said.
"But if you are talking about putting them right in between the combatants, that would be a really, really tough ask as they are currently configured."
Other options include New Zealand troops being stationed to guard dams or other critical infrastructure, or to send only medics, or special forces, or officers for headquarters command.
Matters like this - and the state of the gear and how vehicles could communicate with other countries' troops - would all be part of strategists' thinking in Wellington, Wineera said.
"No country will deploy unless there's a solid plan in place."
The Defence Minister and the NZDF would not answer RNZ's questions about planning for peacekeeping, or just how ready the NZDF was to take part.
Collins said involvement in peacekeeping was "hypothetical".
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