Christopher Luxon, Winston Peters and David Seymour have all enjoyed decent headlines in the week of the poll. Photo: RNZ
Analysis: The first RNZ-Reid Research poll shows how powerful a good week of headlines devoid of distractions can be for the coalition government in a razor-sharp electoral landscape.
A series of public polls since February have put the opposition ahead of the coalition and in a position to govern if an election was held that day.
Those results came on the back of non-stop headlines around Act's controversial Treaty Principles Bill before Parliament, David Seymour's problematic school lunch programme reaching explosive heights, and New Zealand First tirades in Parliament against migrant MPs in the Green Party.
The RNZ-Reid Research poll, which has the coalition able to govern, was conducted at the tail end of the Prime Minister's successful trade trip to India that saw him formally restart negotiations with an influential Indo-Pacific partner and the world's most populous nation.
At the same time, Foreign Minister Winston Peters had just wrapped up critical face-to-face meetings with the United States National Security Advisor and Secretary of State, putting New Zealand in a position to directly make its case for trade tariff exemptions at a time when the rest of the world is being targeted by the Donald Trump administration.
Meanwhile, back at home, acting Prime Minister David Seymour was holding the fort and having a very uneventful week - for Luxon that is a good week indeed.
The poll also captured four days of a busy sitting week at Parliament. It included announcements around the coalition's plan to let people use their private property however they see fit with its proposed changes to the Resource Management Act, and tough talk on plans to crack down on the supermarket duopoly and bring down the cost of food.
It is a markedly different week from many in the past two months where the prime minister has spent all his time talking about the issues brought to the surface by his coalition partners, and very little about what National is focussed on.
On the RNZ-Reid Research numbers, the centre-right bloc would have 62 seats - a two seat majority - while the centre-left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori mustered 58 seats - not enough to be able to form a government.
Asked about the country's prospects, 43.5 percent of respondents to the poll said New Zealand was heading in the right direction under the current government, while 40.6 percent said the wrong direction.
The country is effectively split down the middle, with the political left saying the government is taking the country in the wrong direction and the political right feeling more optimistic.
Both results - seats in the House and direction of travel - are within the margin of error of 3.1 percent, showing just how tight the race is between the two blocs.
It gives both teams a reason to celebrate and be cautious.
While the coalition will breathe a sigh of relief a public poll has its fortunes looking up, it's still a result that delivered a drop in support since the election result for National and only marginal gains for Act and New Zealand First.
Adding to that for National is a net favourability score of -3.9 percent for Luxon, compared to a net positive 12.3 percent for Labour's Chris Hipkins.
That's a win for Hipkins whose challenge is in the job title - opposition leader.
A perception of being negative and pessimistic comes with the territory so a positive net favourability and a better score than the Prime Minister will be notched up as a success.
And while Luxon is ahead of Hipkins in the preferred prime minister rankings, it is neck and neck with just one point in it.
There is just two months to go until the coalition hits the midway mark of its parliamentary term - a point in the electoral cycle where New Zealand First has already indicated it will turn its attentions to campaigning for the 2026 vote.
That will be open season on political parties championing their own corners.
National, in particular, will be hoping however for some sense of stability across the three coalition partners to make a second term seem appealing to voters, or at the very least more palatable than the alternative.
This poll of 1000 people was conducted by Reid Research, using quota sampling and weighting to ensure representative cross section by age, gender and geography. The poll was conducted through online interviews between 21-27 March 2025 and has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The report is available here.
