The teacher supply for New Zealand schools this year could range between 3100 too few teachers, and 540 too many, the Ministry of Education is estimating, (file photo). Photo: RNZ / John Gerritsen
Significant teacher shortages are likely this year, the Ministry of Education has warned, after an error caused it to underestimate demand in a previous forecast.
The annual Teacher Demand and Supply Planning Projection published this morning said schools could be short 1250 teachers due to immigration-driven roll growth and increased classroom release time for teachers.
The forecast was based on a medium-supply projection and could be worse, or better, depending how efforts to attract teachers go.
If teacher supply was low, there could be a shortfall of 3100 teachers, but if teacher supply was high, there might be an oversupply of 540.
In 2023, the ministry forecast an oversupply of teachers for 2025, assuming a medium-supply situation.
But it said that forecast was incorrect.
Ministry of Education workforce deputy secretary Anna Welanyk told RNZ that in preparing the latest, 2024, forecast, the ministry noticed the 2023 projections had not allowed for changes negotiated in teachers' collective agreements that affected staffing.
"We noticed that the report from 2023 had unfortunately not included an allowance for the additional classroom release time and non-contact time that was bargained in 2023. So that was a mistake on the part of the ministry which we have both apologised to the Minister for and to the sector," she said.
The forecast said changes to classroom release time for primary teachers increased demand by 540 teachers, from this year, and pastoral care time allowances and changes to no-contact time for secondary teachers increased demand by 500 teachers, from this year.
Welanyk said that had the 2023 forecast been correct, the ministry would have continued with the same teacher recruitment initiatives.
"But I think probably what we might have done is have a look at some of the settings around some of the incentives to encourage people into the sector," she said.
Welanyk said the forecast's medium-supply forecast was the most likely situation this year.
"It shows us that 2025 is the year of pressure for primary and that the following year, 2026 is the year of the greatest demand for secondary. Now that depends on how some of the assumptions that are built into the forecast actually play out. But at the moment that's what we're expecting," she said.
The 2024 forecast published Friday said primary schools would need 1550 more teachers over the next three years and secondaries' 1035.
It said this year primary schools would require 1000 more teachers due to net migration adding about 7500 pupils last year, with a further 4900 children expected this year.
They would also require about 540 more teachers over the next three years due to increased classroom release time - a figure that assumed half the staff required to provide classroom release time would be relievers rather than permanent teaching staff.
The forecast said secondary schools would require 400 more teachers due to net migration, and a further 545 due to changes to teacher release time, a figure that assumed half of that requirement would be met by relievers.
The report said ministry initiatives should add 300-1220 secondary teachers and 300-1000 primary teachers to the workforce through the next three years.
It said primary schools in Northland, Bay of Plenty and Nelson faced potential shortages equivalent to seven percent of their teaching staff.
The biggest potential shortages in secondary schools were possible in Taranaki (six percent), Otago (four percent), and Auckland (four percent).
Principals told RNZ late last year that some regions were facing a recruitment crisis as they prepared for 2025.
They had warned previously that some schools were struggling to cope with dramatic enrolment increases driven by migration.
- Study visas for foreign workers' children nearly double since pre-pandemic levels
- Increase in new migrant students puts strain on English language teaching resources
Secondary Principals Association president Vaughan Couillault told RNZ recently that secondary schools were expecting ongoing shortages of New Zealand-trained teachers.
"We know we're going to be quite a few hundred teachers short every year when you look at the supply of locally-trained and locally-sourced," he said.
"We still have an issue in the secondary space around the supply of quality teaching."
The ministry said it had initiatives to encourage more people to become teachers.
They included funding for on-site teacher training by 147 people last year, career-change scholarships, and changes to immigration settings.
