New Zealand's Five Eyes security intelligence alliance with the US, Canada, the UK and Australia could be in for a rocky ride with Donald Trump now in the fray, some commentators say. Photo: AFP / Jim Watson
Is there a limited lifespan for the world's most powerful and far reaching spy group Five Eyes, now that Donald Trump is at the presidential helm of the United States?
New Zealand needs to start asking that question, experts say, in its vulnerable place as the minnow in the group of intelligence giants.
"What is the security benefit that we get from being part of this arrangement ... if the United States is openly declaring itself to be hostile to that rules-based order?" Jeremy Moses, University of Canterbury associate professor in international relations said.
Trump has stopped short of threatening to pull out of Five Eyes, unlike his threat over NATO.
But both the Wall Street Journal and Canada's Globe and Mail have reported that Five Eyes now faces its greatest challenge in decades.
Also, Trump has promised to clean out the US intelligence apparatus, and is on track to make Tulsi Gabbard his intelligence chief, and Kash Patel FBI boss, among other wildcard national security appointments.
"He is antagonistic to intelligence, he wants to listen to only what he wants to hear," Dr John Battersby, a senior fellow in security studies at Massey University said.
This raises the prospect Trump will shoot the messenger.
"He's got this idea that the United States is the foundation of the whole world and the rest of the world isn't actually contributing properly," Battersby said.
"If he gets an idea that Australia and New Zealand are not contributing at the rate that he expects them to, he could knock it down to Three Eyes, you know."
But it was more likely the US might dial down its intelligence cooperation with the other members - New Zealand, Australia, Canada and the UK, Battersby said.
On the other hand, Battersby and others have said, China and the Pacific might strike Trump as so important, and Five Eyes' unparalleled spying power as so alluring, that he doubles down on it.
"Five Eyes can also entice Mr Trump's showbiz proclivities, because it echoes The Avengers movie franchise - made up of characters with different abilities and super powers who occasionally fight among themselves and go rogue - but are predominantly focused on going after the bad guys," wrote leading investigative journalist on intelligence Richard Kerbaj in The Globe and Mail.
But the very unpredictability was - as usual with the US President - making people nervous.
Dr Nicholas Smith Photo: Supplied
"My sense in talking to people in Wellington at least, is that there is a sense of insecurity brewing in Wellington and a sense of vulnerability" over the need to maintain the security relationship with the US, said Dr Nicholas Smith of the University of Canterbury, who researches great power competition and how small countries cope.
He agreed with The Wall Street Journal, that there was shock in intelligence circles at Trump's appointments, and trust was one casualty.
"Under this current administration, yeah, I wonder if there will be ... not just in New Zealand, in other places - a kind of thinking around: 'Well, does this change that kind of calculation?', like the cost benefits of being in Five Eyes."
Moses said the Five Eyes' minor members did not have the courage to question its usefulness - but should.
"There is a hope that Trump will not represent the radical change towards a more unstable international order.
"[But] you would hope that some people are thinking about that as a potential consequence. I personally would love to see more courage from the New Zealand government, from other governments, and saying: ... these risks of being involved in these arrangements are becoming quite unacceptable to some extent if the world is as dangerous as it is today."
As things stand, the experts agree for New Zealand, Five Eyes remains essential.
Dr Battersby said the intel the country gets is vital - while Trump could easily argue what we give, is too little.
"Oh, I think so, I think he could always say that.
"We are in our own fiscal problem ... but I still think we are not realising that perhaps we need to step up, and we probably do need to put a bit more emphasis on foreign intelligence than we have been."
Nicholas Smith agreed the country needed Five Eyes, but could return to being less reliant.
"You know, being part of Five Eyes but being somewhat of a dissenter within that.
"I mean, we've upset Five Eyes partners on a number of occasions over the last decade with our kind of perceived softer stance on China.
"New Zealand has shown to be quite adept at doing strategy and foreign policy, and I'd like to think we will be able to kind of ride this out somewhat."
But with Trump in power, all the speculation reflects that all bets are off.
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