The survey did not change ASB's view of a 25 basis point cut to the official cash rate (OCR) later this month. Photo: RNZ
Inflation expectations have ticked up on a "Trump bump" but remain within the Reserve Bank's (RBNZ) one to three percent target band.
The RBNZ's survey of expectations showed the closely-followed two-year-ahead inflation expectations increasing from 2.06 percent to 2.29 percent.
The survey had 41 responses from business leaders and professional forecasters.
ASB senior economist Mark Smith said the RBNZ would be "somewhat wary" as inflation ticked up recently, and noted recent tariff headlines and concerns it may feed through into higher consumer prices "have not helped either".
However, he said the survey did not change ASB's view of a 25 basis point cut to the official cash rate (OCR) later this month.
"We still expect a 25bp OCR cut later this month and a 2.75 percent OCR endpoint, but this is conditional on the expected mid-2025 lift in inflation proving to be transitory," Smith said.
"The risk is that concerns over inflation see the RBNZ pare back monetary policy easing," he said.
Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said the inflation expectations were "well within the RBNZ's comfort zone".
"Even so, today's data is a timely reminder of the lingering upside risks for inflation," he said.
"The rise in the usually stable 2-year ahead measure was large compared to history.
"Upside risks for inflation were also evident in Stats NZ's monthly prices update earlier this week, which showed continued firm price pressures for items like food, transport and electricity, as well as a worrying surge in coffee prices," Ranchhod said.
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