Thousands leave New Caledonia in civil unrest, as long recovery awaits those staying

By Doug Dingwall and Seni Iasona in Nouméa, and Gabriella Marchant, for ABC

Renaud Mahé never planned to be the "captain of the ship" at a hotel by the turquoise waters of New Caledonia's Anse Vata Bay.

After leaving France and working in hotels throughout Asia and Australia, he and his wife settled in the French territory, where they raised two children.

But on 13 May last year, Mahé found himself responsible for 200 people stranded at the Chateau Royal Beach Resort and Spa during violent civil unrest that erupted in the capital, Nouméa.

"All of a sudden, everything collapsed," he said.

"You are the captain of the ship, so you have to make decisions for your family, your staff, your guests, for the asset of [the hotel] owners," he said.

In the chaotic weeks that followed, Mahé helped guests return safely home.

But with New Caledonia empty of tourists, Mahé was out of work and the hotel's owning company asked him to move on.

He and his family were among the nearly 11,000 people who left the territory in 2024.

Months of violence, which ignited over attempted electoral reforms, led to 13 deaths and deepened divisions in New Caledonia over the question of independence from France.

It also left a trail of economic carnage: destroyed businesses, job losses, and a weak economy.

The territory's Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI) said the crisis had created a "climate of insecurity and instability".

Nouméa's international airport, which is managed by the CCI, released migration figures earlier this year showing a net 10,700 people departed the territory in 2024.

While it's unclear whether the departures are permanent, the number is five times the average for recent years, and could signal a dramatic fall in population for a territory of 270,000.

The outflow of people - most of them French nationals - has created other problems.

A shortage of doctors and nurses has left health services struggling to meet demand, and the CCI said the departures have dragged on the economy.

There are hopes New Caledonia is turning a corner, as political parties and French government officials make a long-awaited return to talks on the territory's future.

But while some French nationals are waiting to see whether discussions lead to lasting peace before they return, others say their decision to leave is final.

'Not ready to go back'

When a job opened for Mahé in French Polynesia, about 4700km across the Pacific Ocean, he and his family had three weeks to pack and leave.

"We were rushed. That was quite difficult for the kids and my wife as well," he said.

The family is settling into their new home in Mo'orea, where Mahé is managing a resort near Tahiti.

He's grateful to have the chance to move there.

But the situation in New Caledonia has weighed on him.

"It is still an amazing territory, but it is suffering," he said.

"It really makes my heart cry when I hear about the news and the situation over there."

And while he loves New Caledonia, Mahé doesn't plan to return at the moment - even for the right job.

"I'm not emotionally ready to go back," he said.

For those who stayed, a daunting recovery effort awaits.

The departure of French nationals has left it short of doctors and nurses, according to the CCI.

About 20 percent of the 1000 doctors locally registered in February 2024 left the territory after the civil unrest began, according to the French Medical Association of New Caledonia.

A shortage of operating surgical nurses has also forced Nouméa's hospital to close departments and stop some surgeries, Medical Association adviser Pierre-Emmanuel Bourgeois said.

Nurses finishing their contracts returned to "metropolitan" France after the riots, while some doctors moved their practices to safer parts of the capital.

"Some neighbourhoods have no doctors due to the riots," Dr Bourgeois said.

An association of health professionals, Collectif Santé en Danger, has proposed the New Caledonia government attract doctors and nurses back to the territory with income tax exemptions, he said.

'They have to hurry'

Nearly a year since the unrest started, unemployment remains high.

One in five workers has lost all or part of their income since the crisis started, and more than half of the 11,000 people who lost their jobs after March 2024 were still unemployed at the start of this year.

University of New Caledonia economist Séverine Blaise said the economic situation was "catastrophic".

She said the local government should focus on strengthening social security for people struggling to make a living, and invest in sectors identified as promoting economic development, such as agriculture.

Above all, she said New Caledonia needed an agreement between pro- and anti-independence parties - one that, in her view, should grant independence but maintain association with France.

"They really have to hurry up now and be able to negotiate and find a compromise," Dr Blaise said.

"This is really the best thing that can be done now for the country."

The CCI said the outflow of people from New Caledonia had added to economic problems, with "significant" repercussions for local businesses.

Combined with lower economic activity, it had led to a sharp decline in consumer spending and reduced tax revenue needed for local public services and infrastructure, it said.

New Caledonia's President Alcide Ponga said the territory would clarify the number of permanent departures that took place in 2024, acknowledging the question of migration outflows was important.

"If we want a New Caledonia that shines, that is economically autonomous, where there are people who work, people who consume, people who pay taxes, at some point, we have to make the choice of the country we want," he said.

He said the New Caledonia government was reducing public spending to "save" its public services, and was working towards restarting the nickel industry.

But he said a political agreement was needed to stabilise the territory.

"New Caledonia is capable of overcoming these divisions," he said.

"Everyone must work in this direction to rediscover what is deepest inside us, the desire to live together.

"That is a collective responsibility."

Hopes ride on quick agreement

After a year of violence and uncertainty, New Caledonia had a breakthrough when recently-appointed French Overseas Minister Manuel Valls visited Nouméa last month.

Pro- and anti-independence parties returned to discussions on the territory's political future, leading to a "synthesis" document stating their positions.

Some of their views were diametrically opposed, visiting fellow at the Australian National University's Centre for European Studies, Denise Fisher, said.

Pro-independence groups are calling for a pathway to full sovereignty, and anti-independence groups are pushing to remain in France.

But the document laid the foundation for future talks, Fisher said: "Let's not minimise the fact of the meeting itself.

"That in itself was a major achievement set against the turmoil of New Caledonia at the moment."

The ABC approached France's ambassador in the Pacific, Véronique Roger-Lacan, for comment but she did not reply.

Valls is expected to return to Nouméa for a new round of discussions soon.

In French Polynesia, Mahé wants peace for his former home.

"My hope would be for a quick solution. Not negotiations lasting for 25 more years, because it will not help the people," he said.

"It will not help the reputation of the territory, and it's going to be very tough on whoever stayed behind."

- ABC