Manuel Valls was heard on Wednesday 26 March 2025 at the French National Assembly’s Delegation for Overseas. Photo: Assemblée Nationale
Analysis - French Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls is returning to New Caledonia this weekend.
Less than one month after his previous visit, he intends to further talks on the French Pacific territory's political future.
Valls has already managed to get everyone back at the same table, but this time around, he intends to initiate real negotiations.
However, his chances of success are still remote: opposing camps, pro-France and pro-independence, are holding tight to their respective - and oft-called irreconcilable - claims.
Valls was in New Caledonia for a week, between 22 February and 1 March.
During his stay, his most notable success was to manage to get all opposing parties (those who want New Caledonia to remain part of France and those who want full sovereignty) to sit around the same table for talks, something that had not happened since late 2021, after the third (in a series of three) referenda on self-determination.
After his last visit, Valls published a document he called a "synthesis paper" summing up both pro-France and pro-independence camps' often antagonistic views, and that is now supposed to be a working basis for more advanced talks.
On each side, New Caledonia's most outspoken parties have since acknowledged the value of these talks, but that they were only "discussions", not negotiations.
In an interview with French media outlets BFMTV and RMC earlier in March, Valls, a former French prime minister, said the situation in New Caledonia was not appeased yet and that a comprehensive agreement on the French Pacific territory's political future was still remote.
"I will continue to work with a lot of humility," he said, adding: "Even though we managed to get all political forces to speak to each other again, we are still far from an agreement.
"It is still tense because there's been a lot of violence [since the May 2024 insurrectional riots, a lot of fear, a lot of racism, and people who no longer speak to each other.
"One has to understand the fear all of our compatriots over there, and especially those of European origin, have gone through. And to understand also the Kanaks' aspiration to emancipation and decolonisation."
New Caledonia’s parties begin talks at the French High Commission in Nouméa – 26 February. Photo: RRB
Walking on a tightrope
Juggling with those two antagonistic and highly-sensitive concepts, Valls admitted that these were presently "two logics" at play, and "now we have to ensure that through dialogue, a political agreement can emerge from this".
The next step, during his four-day trip (between 29 March and 1 April), now appears to advance from "talks" and "discussions" to "negotiations" while at the same time trying not to appear as pushing the agenda.
The French minister is planning to hold this fresh round of talks at the French High commission in Nouméa, behind closed doors, every day of his four-day stay.
The main pillars of those political discussions would be around the definition of New Caledonia's future links with France, possible future transfer of powers from France to New Caledonia, a future New Caledonian citizenship, and the related question of who is eligible to vote at local elections, governance and a "project" for New Caledonia's society.
On the table is also the general question of New Caledonia's future status in relation to France: from "shared sovereignty" to "full independence" and, in between, a status quo or a "free association", or any other yet-to-be-defined proposal.
A good indication of the remaining level of tension: as soon as his agenda was published just before his departure for the South Pacific, there were immediate reactions from the pro-independence FLNKS (dominated by prominent party Union Calédonienne) because the word "negotiations" was used to describe the scheduled political talks.
Negotiations or still just talks?
On the eve of Valls' arrival, FLNKS was demanding "clarifications", because it says it regards itself as still "in the preparatory phase" of talks.
Union Calédonienne Secretary-General Dominique Fochi said in a communiqué on Friday that "every advancement towards negotiations is preconditioned to a clear, balanced and shared methodological framework".
The release also alludes to "implicit pressure" if Valls was to hold negotiations "forcibly", thus jeopardising the notion of "mutual trust".
The pro-independence umbrella re-states that, on its path to self-determination, some "unavoidable elements" need to be discussed "before engaging into negotiations".
One of these elements is FLNKS's demand that its president Christian Téin (who is currently serving a pre-trial jail term in mainland France's Mulhouse gaol) should be part of the talks.
Téin was arrested in June 2024 and transferred to mainland France in relation to alleged organised criminal activities. He was elected FLNKS President in absentia during a FLNKS Congress in August 2024.
Another of these demands was the supervision of the talks by the United Nations.
The recently-elected President of the pro-independence Union Calédonienne, Emmanuel Tjibaou, said they also want a quick independence, with a "Kanaky Accord" to be signed this year, to be followed by a five-year "transition" period.
Pro-France camp irked by other words
On the other side of the political spectrum, outspoken leader and French National Assembly MP Nicolas Metzdorf repeatedly objected to debating New Caledonia's "link" with France, a topic they considered irrelevant.
Metzdorf's position, followed by a large part of the pro-France camp, is that between 2018 and 2021, three referendums have been held on self-determination and they have all rejected the notion of New Caledonia's independence.
However, the third and latest poll in December 2021 was boycotted by a large part of the pro-independence voters.
"When you are French [as we are], you don't have a 'link' with France, you are France," he wrote on social networks this week, after yet another exchange with Valls in Paris.
The scene of the exchange was earlier this week when Valls, questioned by the French National Assembly's Delegation for Overseas, said New Caledonia' was now at a "decisive, historical moment. And only dialogue will allow a common project to emerge."
During the same session, Valls also said that in any future configuration for New Caledonia, he believed France would probably remain in charge of such powers as defence, justice and law and order.
"Non-negotiable fundamentals"
The two most prominent pro-France parties, Rassemblement-LR and Les Loyalistes, also spoke on numerous occasions since Valls's departure in early March, mostly to demand more "clarifications".
During future talks, they reject any notion that would fall "outside the framework of the French Republic".
Les Loyalistes leader and Southern Province President Sonia Backès told local media the outcome of the three referendums, to remain a part of France, equality of all communities, were non-negotiable fundamentals that must be respected.
"Yes to a political compromise, but only within the French Republic," she said.
Metzdorf added: "We just want to make one thing clear: we will never accept to sign any political compromise or agreement that would be independence, independence association or even a path to independence-association.
"The only political compromise that we'll commit to sign will be within the French Republic, in keeping with the results of the three referendums."
The pro-France Les Loyalistes and Rassemblement-LR are also advocating for significant changes in the way the three provinces are managed, a concept described as "internal federalism", but slammed by critics as tantamount to some kind of institutionalised apartheid.
Tribune in New Zealand media
Apparently aiming for a regional Pacific audience, the Minister also managed to have his views relayed in the New Zealand media, through an opinion piece published last week.
He wrote "France is fully committed" to "protecting" New Caledonia "and all its overseas territories from any foreign interference aimed at destabilising the territory or undermining France's strategic interests".
"I categorically reject any efforts to exploit New Caledonia as a pawn in the geopolitical game, and we will decisively prevent it... These external challenges only strengthen our resolve to find a consensual solution for New Caledonia."
The more moderate positions
Still on the pro-France side, a leader of pro-France Rassemblement party, Virginie Ruffenach, told public broadcaster NC la Première that because "some movements in the camp across the road said we are not yet in negotiations, then we shall wait and see".
Moderate pro-independence PALIKA (Kanak Liberation Party) leader Jean-Pierre Djaïwé said the most pressing issue, in his view, was to deal with the issue of New Caledonia's future relationship with France.
"We cannot envisage this country's future without everyone. We really need to live together and understand each other," Djaïwé told pro-France Radio Rythme Bleu on Friday.
"But unfortunately, too often, we often live not together, but next to one another.
"We can't stay on our positions; we just have to move forward.
"Let's work together to bring our country to full sovereignty, in partnership with France."
He also denied that a possible alliance of moderate parties (such as the Wallisian-based Eveil Océanien, the pro-France Calédonie Ensemble and pro-independence moderates) could be formed to promote a "third way".
Another moderate pro-independence party, the Union Progressiste en Mélanésie (UPM) leader Victor Tutugoro told a recent rally that they favoured entering into negotiations for a "shared future" "in partnership with France".
Both PALIKA and UPM, since September 2024, have openly distanced themselves (saying they "do not recognise themselves" in the Union Calédonienne's radical approach) and are no longer taking part in the FLNKS pro-independence political bureau.
"Even though the objective is the same, we cannot be on the side of people who hold a different view [in terms of accessing independence].
"Our line aims at reassuring those in front of us who want New Caledonia to remain part of France."
Both PALIKA and UPM (who are formed into a UNI-FLNKS caucus at New Caledonia's Congress) said they were ready to go to negotiations with Valls.
Since Valls's last visit, most political parties have been touching base with their respective militants and sympathisers, largely in rural New Caledonia, officially to keep them informed on the developments arising from the previous sequence of talks.
