By David Ljunggren and Ismail Shakil for Reuters
Supporters for Canada's Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney celebrate as results are announced during an election party in Ottawa. Photo: AFP / Dave Chan
- Liberals needed 172 seats to form majority government
- US President Donald Trump's tariffs and annexation musings boosted PM's support
- Mark Carney emphasized economic experience against Trump threats
- Trump repeats call for Canada to be 51st state
- Conservative campaign focused on cost of living, crime
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals have retained power in the country's election, but CTV News predicted they would fall short of the majority government he had wanted to help him negotiate tariffs with US President Donald Trump.
The Liberals were leading or elected in 167 electoral districts, known as seats, followed by the Conservatives with 145, with votes still being counted.
The Liberals had needed to win 172 of the House of Commons' 343 seats for a majority that would allow them to govern without support from a smaller party.
"Our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over," Carney said in a victory speech in Ottawa. "The system of open global trade anchored by the United States, a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that, while not perfect, has helped deliver prosperity for our country for decades, is over.
"These are tragedies, but it's also our new reality."
Carney said the coming months would be challenging and require sacrifices.
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has congratulated Carney on his election victory.
In a post on X, Luxon said there was much New Zealand and Canada share in common, with more they can do together.
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters also sent his congratulations to Canada's Liberal Party.
He said New Zealand valued the close relationship with Canada and was looking forward to working with the new government.
Shachi Kurl - president of the Angus Reid Institute, a polling firm - told Reuters the Liberal win hinged on three factors.
"It was the 'anybody-but-Conservative' factor, it was the Trump tariff factor, and then it was the Trudeau departure ... which enabled a lot of left-of-centre voters and traditional Liberal voters to come back to the party," Kurl said, referring to the resignation of unpopular former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Carney had promised a tough approach with Washington over its tariffs, and said Canada would need to spend billions to reduce its reliance on the US. But the right-of-centre Conservatives, who called for change after more than nine years of Liberal rule, showed unexpected strength.
Minority governments in Canada rarely last longer than 2-1/2 years.
The Canadian Broadcasting Corp projected a Liberal win but did not yet say if they expected a minority or majority government.
Supporters watch the results come in on Election Day at the Conservative election party in Canada. Photo: AFP / Geoff Robins
The result, though, capped a notable comeback for the Liberals, who had been 20 points behind in the polls in January before Trudeau announced he was quitting and Trump started threatening tariffs and annexation.
The last party to win four consecutive elections in Canada was the Liberals, in 2004.
"I look back to as recently as December, when everyone was writing the Liberal Party off," Liberal Transport Minister Chrystia Freeland told CTV.
"People were even talking about whether we would retain official party status in the next election. Tonight, when it is clear that we are going to form the government, from my perspective, that is an outstanding result."
Freeland's resignation from the Liberal cabinet in December after a clash with Trudeau led to his resignation.
The result was a huge defeat for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who focused his campaign on domestic issues and the need to fix a country the Liberals had "broken."
Neither the Carney nor Poilievre camp was immediately available for reaction to the CTV and CBC forecasts.
Trump's threats ignited a wave of patriotism that swelled support for Carney, a political newcomer who previously led two G7 central banks.
A voter casts her ballot at a polling station on election day. Photo: AFP / Dave Chan
Trump re-emerged as a campaign factor last week, declaring that he might raise a 25 percent tariff on Canadian-made cars because the US does not want them. He said earlier he might use "economic force" to make Canada the 51st state.
"This is probably the most consequential election in my lifetime," said Kelly Saunders, a political science professor at Brandon University in the province of Manitoba. "Everything has been so overshadowed by the threats coming out of the United States."
Carney has emphasised that his experience handling economic issues makes him the best leader to deal with Trump, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has tapped into concerns about the cost of living, crime and a housing crisis.
Trump, in a social media post on Monday, reiterated his call for Canada to become the 51st state.
"Good luck to the Great people of Canada," he said. "Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America. No more artificially drawn line from many years ago."
Poilievre, who has watched support for Carney surge in recent months as Trump mused about absorbing Canada, responded on social media to the president's comment.
"President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box," Poilievre said earlier on Monday.
Carney posted: "Elbows up, Canada. #Never51." "Elbows up" is a hockey reference that Canadians have adopted as a slogan to stand up to Trump.
The Liberal prime minister has sought to distance himself from his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, who was deeply unpopular when he said in January he would resign after nearly a decade in power. The Conservatives led polls by some 20 points around that time.
Poilievre has attracted more young voters than usual for the Conservatives, focusing his campaign more on living costs and crime.
Tensions with the US have caused supporters of two smaller parties, the left-leaning New Democratic Party and the separatist Bloc Quebecois, to shift to the Liberals in polls.
The campaign ended on a somber note on Sunday after a man rammed an SUV through a crowd at a Filipino community festival in Vancouver, killing at least 11 people and injuring dozens.
