(Clockwise from left) Leroy Carter, Ioane Moananu, Fabian Holland, Quinn Tupaea, Du'Plessis Kirifi, Kyle Preston, Rieko Ioane. GRAPHIC: Liam Swiggs RNZ Photo: PHOTOSPORT
Analysis - We're about six weeks out from the All Blacks taking the field for their first test of the year, so it's time to cast an eye over who will be named in Scott Robertson's 36-man squad on 23 June. While Super Rugby Pacific is still yet to finish, we've had enough of a look at the form of everyone to start making some calls - although there will always be room for a surprise or two.
While Robertson was critiqued somewhat due to his initially conservative selections for the test matches against England, it is worth remembering that he also made big calls on players like Wallace Sititi, Billy Proctor and Pasilio Tosi. So how is everyone looking so far as Robertson starts to ink in names for the three test series against France?
Shoo-ins
Ardie Savea and Wallace Sititi with the Bledisloe Cup after the All Blacks beat the Australian Wallabies at Accor Stadium in Sydney. 21 September 2024. Photo: Photosport / James Gourley
Ardie Savea, Scott Barrett, Jordie Barrett, Beauden Barrett, Tyrel Lomax, Tamaiti Williams, Codie Taylor, Patrick Tuipulotu, Cam Roigard, Damian McKenzie, Wallace Sititi, Tupou Vaa'i
Savea's form makes him the easiest to pick All Black since Richie McCaw, while the Barrett family is obviously essential despite Jordie's recent sojourn. No surprise that the entire starting tight five plus Tuipulotu is in this category as well.
Probables
Caleb Clarke of New Zealand. New Zealand All Blacks v Australia Wallabies, Bledisloe Cup and Rugby Championship rugby union test match at Sky Stadium, Wellington, New Zealand on Saturday 28 September 2024. © Photo: Andrew Cornaga / Photosport Photo: Andrew Cornaga/www.photosport.nz
Caleb Clarke, Fletcher Newell, Pasilio Tosi, Peter Lakai, Noah Hotham, Luke Jacobson, Asafo Aumua, David Havili
Despite the Blues' woes, Clarke has established himself as the All Blacks' prime strike weapon. Newell and Tosi retain their propping rotation spots, while Hotham is likely the next cab off the rank behind Roigard. Jacobson has a decent case to be starting at blindside if that's the positional mix preferred, while Lakai can cover both Sititi and Savea.
Aumua gets in this category with a bit of luck as while he's been relatively quiet in Super Rugby, there is only one other hooker putting his hand up - plus his form last year for the All Blacks was outstanding. Havili's utility and now leadership experience counts in his favour, as well as being one of Robertson's Crusaders stalwarts.
Coming right at the right time
Quinn Tupaea of the Chiefs scores. Photo: Jeremy Ward/Photosport
Quinn Tupaea, Du'Plessis Kirifi, Fabian Holland, Xavier Numia, Ruben Love, Billy Proctor, Emoni Narawa, Ioane Moananu, Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens, Chay Fihaki
Tupaea's comeback is a heartwarming one, with the midfielder making every post a winner since returning from an exceptionally cruel injury. Kirifi and his work rate look to be the most like-for-like replacement for Sam Cane, while Holland probably just has to make sure he stays fit to join the tall timber stocks since Sam Darry is injured.
Moananu doesn't really fall into the bolter category as he's been the best hooker in the country during Taylor's managed Crusaders absence, meanwhile Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens is a very sound option under the high ball to cover the back three. Fihaki's place on the depth chart has already been established with his inclusion in the wider squad last year.
Potential bolters
Moana Pasifika loose forward Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa during the Super Rugby Pacific v the Blues at Eden Park on Saturday, 12 April 2025. Photo: Brett Phibbs / www.photosport.nz
Semisi Tupou-Ta'eiloa, Kyle Preston, Leroy Carter, Josh Fusitu'a
The expected 36-man squad leaves room for more of a prop rotation, so there's room to make a Tosi-like selection with the impressive Fusitu'a a serious option. Preston appears to have all the attributes for test rugby already, while Carter is simply young, very fast and has clearly been brought back from the Sevens programme for a reason.
Tupou-Ta'eiloa is an interesting one though. Last year Robertson overlooked the big, bruising form of Hoskins Sotutu but may be inclined to carry an extra-high calibre cannon this season just in case. However, if the Otago Boys High product is the All Blacks' plans, it will raise a complicated conversation about just what Moana Pasifika's ultimate purpose is.
Points to prove
Ethan De Groot of New Zealand dejected after loss to Argentina. 2024. Photo: PHOTOSPORT
Ethan de Groot, Sevu Reece, Dalton Papali'i, Timoci Tavatavanawai, Folau Fakatava, Cortez Ratima, Finlay Christie, Rieko Ioane, Samisoni Taukei'aho, Mark Tele'a
Bit harsh on Papali'i here as he's been one of the more consistent players in a poor Blues team, but this is more about how he fits into a loose forward mix that will now be anchored by Savea and Sititi. Tavatavanawai started this year so strong many were keen to name him in the All Blacks in March, but has cooled off along with the Highlanders' fortunes. Ratima's inconsistency last year and inability to hold down a starting spot at the Chiefs counts against him, however the halfback mix is still open. Ditto the hooker situation - Taukei'aho had been injured for a long, long time and has failed to hold down a regular starting place since his return.
Ioane will almost certainly be picked, however will need to play a major role in this July series to regain the public's favour and hang on to the 13 jersey. Reece may well pay for the drop off in form at the end of last year, though, while de Groot's place in the starting team has been well and truly claimed by Williams. The big question now is whether his test career will suffer the same fate.
Tele'a's impending move to Japan theoretically should rule him out of selection, but it's worth noting that didn't stop Robertson selecting Sam Cane and TJ Perenara for all of last season.
Injury cloud
An injured Sam Darry during a Blues Super Rugby training session Photo: Andrew Cornaga/www.photosport.nz
Will Jordan, Anton Lienert-Brown, Caleb Tangitau, Ethan Blackadder, Sam Darry, Brayden Iose
As soon as he's passed fit, Jordan goes straight into the shoo-in category. Lienert-Brown's broken collarbone means he will likely miss the start of the test season at least, while Blackadder's ongoing injury issues have unfortunately meant having him on the field at all is more of a bonus than anything to plan around. Tangitau was the best winger in Super Rugby Pacific at the start of the season, even if he does make it back to fitness it's fair to say he's been overtaken by others in his absence.
