The government is celebrating what it says is a reduction in violent crime based on the latest quarterly statistics - but admits the data is volatile.
The justice and police ministers say the quarterly statistics show 28,000 fewer victims of violent crime than in October 2023, surpassing the government's self-imposed target of ensuring 20,000 fewer victims of serious violent crime by 2029.
"This is very encouraging and shows our work to restore law and order is paying off," Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith said.
However, the survey dates back two years, surveying people across a year about their experiences in the year prior. This means the quarterly data covers the year from February 2023 to 2024.
"The latest quarterly results for all government targets will not be released until early June. However, given the significance of these results we are releasing them early, as we believe they are robust and in the public interest," Goldsmith said.
"We do, however, expect the data to remain volatile, and there's still more work to do to continue driving these numbers down. It's important to remember this survey covers a 24-month period, so we will continue to see the results of Labour's soft on crime approach filter through at points."
The Ministry of Justice said the numbers from quarterly releases are also more volatile and should be considered indicative only.
The quarterly data is not typically released by the Ministry of Justice, which instead each February, releases a full annual report for data in the year to October.
The ministry said it does not recommend referring to differences between the annual estimate and quarterly datapoints as statistically significant, noting that the quarterly results use different methodologies.
'We want to see the prison population reduced' - Luxon
Luxon said the government was making good progress on its law and order goals.
"It's good to be celebrating, or at least acknowledging some of these milestones, acknowledging also that we have a long way to go to get to where we need to get to."
Asked about the timeframes of the data, and whether that showed Labour's approach was working, Luxon disagreed.
"I can tell you it definitely wasn't working. Their approach was to have one target around law and order and that was to reduce the prison population. We want to see the prison population reduced but we want to see it reduced on the back of reduced crime."
He said the government had done a good job of putting in powerful legislation over the past 16 months to ensure New Zealanders were safer.
Goldsmith said the government ending cultural reports, passing gang legislation and proposing sentencing and three strikes laws were contributing to the stats.
"We've sent a very powerful signal, so it's about sending a strong signal that we're not up for the culture of excuses, we're up for people being held accountable and that has filtered through and we're starting to make some real progress. So to be ahead of the target already is very encouraging - it's going to bounce around a bit but we feel very good."
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon speaks to the media after violent crime statistics are released on 15 April 2025. Photo: RNZ / Marika Khabazi
He quoted also a 12,000 decrease in victimisations in Auckland and 5000 fewer in Canterbury.
Police Minister Mark Mitchell acknowledged the number of gang members had increased, and said the government was "making progress" on police numbers.
"Although they're early results, they're trending in the right direction," he said of the crime survey data.
The Ministry of Justice says the numbers from quarterly releases are also more volatile and should be considered indicative only.
The quarterly data is not typically released by the Ministry of Justice, which instead releases a full annual report in October.
The ministry says it does not recommend referring to differences between the annual estimate and quarterly datapoints as statistically significant, noting that the quarterly results use different methodologies.
