The New Zealand Defence Force is embarking on a drone shopping spree. Photo: You Tube / NZ Defence Force
Do not buy drones that have not been proven for real in the Ukraine war. That's the message to the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) as it embarks on a drone shopping spree from a major maker of air, sea and land drones.
Samuel Vye - whose Tauranga firm Syos Aerospace has a capacity of thousands of drones a month and supplies the UK armed forces - said the NZDF had asked about Syos' experience of international markets, and of international operations.
"My stance would be, to be honest, is any vehicles not tested in Ukraine are not suitable for use by pretty much any nation's defence force," Vye told RNZ.
NZDF has $200 million - $450m to spend on drones for maritime and security surveillance and reconnaissance, and combat, by 2029, under the new defence capability plan (DCP). It is "indicative" only and would need business cases and Budget appropriations to back it up.
But former defence minister Ron Mark is sceptical enough is being done.
He was hearing from the front line about other countries trialling drones, with Ukraine's blessing and help, but not New Zealand.
"Any nation that's worried about their own security is going to move swiftly to gather whatever intelligence that they are able to gain from Ukraine," Mark said.
"Nothing from NZDF that I'm aware of. Nothing. Most of these are like-minded partners who are bolder than New Zealand."
Longstanding defence doctrine had been "blown out the window" in Ukraine and other countries saw the national interest in catching up, he added.
Mark hoped local drone makers were doing their own homework, through links to overseas companies active in Ukraine - and both he and Vye expressed confidence the locals were clever enough to meet demand triggered by the new capability plan.
"We operate internationally," said Vye. "New Zealand as a whole doesn't currently have a huge sovereign production capacity.
"But I see the DCP changing that."
He cautioned to beware of "vapourware" around drones that might not measure up.
"Basically any nation purchasing drone systems now, if they're not capable of operating in a conflicted environment such as Ukraine, then they shouldn't be purchased.
"So New Zealand's government and NZDF will have to review ... ensuring that they have the right test locations ... if they haven't already been tested in Ukraine."
Former defence minister Ron Mark. Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver
Mark looked at options for drones back in 2018 when he was defence minister: Ultimately conventional planes, the P8 Poseidons won out, and Mark secured four of them, not the five P8s he said he asked for.
He found the defence science and technology arm of NZDF was less innovative and more resistant than he wanted, but hoped that had changed.
Vye said defence had experienced people who were not starting from scratch.
"What they're able to do is actually leverage the learnings from other friendly nations, both from the Australian Defence Force as well as the British ... I know that for a fact."
They would absorb lessons about rapid procurement and how to set up local supply chains, he said.
Other lessons from allies were on the cyber security front.
Both the US and Australia have debated or made moves around what components were allowed in military drones, to protests of protectionism from China.
The US Congress first passed a restrictive bill, then the Senate withdrew parts of it, but concerns keep pingponging around.
Dr Andrew Shelley, whose firm Fenix works in drone training and regulation, said now the government had given a belated signal that NZDF was in the drone market, it needed to look at this, too.
"One of the issues that's come through from the United States, through to Australia and then potentially to other allies, is that ... you can't be certain exactly what's on the chip," Shelley said.
Amid the tariffs war, Beijing last week banned some US drone makers from new investments in China.
Shelley worries, too, that for local firms testing high-end surveillance drones, time was ticking given the tight timelines in the capability plan.
"So anyone who is wanting to develop something like that, [it's] very much a race against time."
Cheaper, attack drones were easier to adapt from quadcopters, he said - as Ukrainians have been doing, in their thousands, in a merciless tit-for-tat with Russia.
In gestation for two years, the defence capability plan now envisaged putting pedal to the metal, for instance, by putting up to $300m into a new technology accelerator unit to turn prototypes into the real deal rapidly.
Shelley questioned why NZDF had not copied Australia, in running contests and drone races to get a look at what industry had, and get its industry aligned.
If local firms were not ready, drone dollars might get locked up in long contracts offshore, he said.
Ron Mark, now mayor of Carterton, questioned if government policy settings were right on Ukraine.
"Would it be sensible for us to take every opportunity we can to learn from that battle space, to learn from their experience, to develop our own capabilities and our own counter-measure capabilities to protect our own people?
"Most definitely, I would argue that at the cabinet table.
"I do meet with military people every now and then, and I do make clear to them on the quiet, the opportunities they're missing. But it's a policy setting that's set by the government.
"It's mystifying, if you want to be polite. It's not smart, if you want to talk like Ron Mark."
But drone-maker Vye could see only upsides.
"That's not going to be an issue," he said about drone millions getting locked up offshore.
"I'm fully behind the DCP and the team that put it together - they're pushing to grow the capability so New Zealand can ultimately stand on its own two feet."
Industry body Aerospace New Zealand said the DCP marked a "bold shift" in recognising New Zealand's defence priorities in light of its huge exclusive economic zone.
"As we look to the horizon, advanced aviation and space technologies will be the eyes and ears of a more connected, better-protected nation," it said in a statement.
"We envision a future where local aerospace companies play a central role in delivering sovereign solutions that strengthen security, resilience, and our place in the world."
NZDF has been approached for comment.
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