The latest Taxpayers Union-Curia poll indicates the Labour Party is at its lowest level of popularity since the start of this year, after a 4.3 percent fall in support. Photo: RNZ
Labour and Te Pāti Māori have lost support, the latest Taxpayers Union-Curia poll suggests.
Both the major parties were down in the poll compared to the March numbers, but National only marginally.
The coalition parties would have also enough seats to form a government under these numbers, a shift from what the previous two polls showed.
Labour's 4.3 percentage point fall is a statistically significant shift, which brings the party below 30 percent, its lowest level of support since the start of the year.
What the latest Taxpayers Union-Curia poll shows:
- National: 33.5 percent, down 0.1 percentage points (42 seats)
- Labour: 29.8 percent, down 4.3 (37 seats)
- Greens: 11 percent, up 1.0 (14 seats)
- ACT: 10 percent, up 2.3 (13 seats)
- NZ First: 7.4 percent, up 2.3 (9 seats)
- Te Pāti Māori: 4.3 percent, down 2.2 (6 seats)
For the minor parties, TOP was on 1.5 percent (+1.0 points), the Outdoors and Freedom Party on 1.0 percent (+0.4 points), and New Conservatives on 0.4 percent (+0.4 points).
On the preferred prime minister rankings, Chris Hipkins - who in March overtook Christopher Luxon for the first time since the election] - dipped below his competitor, dropping 1.8 points to 18.9 percent.
Luxon gained 1.6 points to regain pole position.
However, Hipkins' net favourability at 2 percent (-2 points) was still higher than Luxon's -6 percent (+4 points)
Preferred prime minister:
- Christopher Luxon: 21.9 percent, up 1.6 points
- Chris Hipkins: 18.9 percent, down 1.8 points
- Winston Peters: 12.8 percent, up 4.2
- David Seymour: 8 percent, up 3 points
- Chlöe Swarbrick: 4.2 percent, down 0.6 points
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers' Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Saturday 29 March and Tuesday 1 April 2025, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%, and 5.4% people surveyed said they were undecided on the party vote question.
Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand. It recently resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body.
Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.
