Breakers coach Petteri Koponen and co-captain Mitch McCarron against Tasmania JackJumpers Photo: Andrew Cornaga/www.photosport.nz
As his team rest heavily on the proverbial 'mathematical chance', NZ Breakers co-captain Mitch McCarron isn't quite ready to reflect on a lost season yet.
After sitting atop the Aussie NBL early in the season, the Auckland-based team have free-fallen to the competition basement, sitting only above Cairns Taipans, but still with a remote chance to snatching a playoff spot.
The first step in that improbably quest comes Friday night against Brisbane Bullets at Christchurch's Wolfbrook Arena.
"That's where we're at,: concedes McCarron. "We just have to face the reality - it's about winning games one by one and doing everything we can to put ourselves in that position.
"The mindset for us is just to win every game we possibly can and not think about the other results from other teams. It's easy to get caught up in the game-by-game or round-by-round results, and where that puts you on the ladder.
"As far as we're concerned, we're trying to end on 13 wins now and that would put us in the conversation. If we don't take care of our own business, it's irrelevant what everyone else does."
Thirteen wins saw the Breakers sneak into the play-in phase of last season, edging Brisbane in a points differential countback and overcoming Sydney Kings, before ultimately falling to Illawarra Hawks.
Previously, 15 wins was considered the post-season benchmark and this year, with an extra game on each team's schedule, that again seems a realistic barometer.
If the Breakers are to stand any chance, here's the likely equation:
- Breakers must win all four remaining games v Brisbane (H), Adelaide (A), Cairns (H) and Illawarra (H)
The first three opponents are all currently below the playoff cutoff, so eminently beatable, but the tabletopping Hawks at home in the finale looms as the biggest test. By then, Illawarra may be in a mood to rest their stars.
- Tasmania JackJumpers must lose all four remaining games v South East Melbourne (A), Illawarra (H), Melbourne (A) and Cairns (H)
Their first three opponents are all post-season teams, so those games are eminently losable, but their last outing is against bottom-of-the-table Taipans at home.
- Adelaide 36ers must lose to Breakers, and win only one of the other four v Sydney (A), Brisbane (H), SEM (A) and Perth (A)
Three of their remaining opponents are playoff contenders, but the home fixture against Brisbane is a pivotal one in everyone's fortunes.
-Brisbane Bullets must lose to Breakers, and win only two of the other three v Melbourne (H), Adelaide (A) and Cairns (A)
The home game against perennial contenders Melbourne United is the key one for Brisbane, with their remaining two against lower-ranked rivals.
Big wins, big defeats needed
Of course, if the Breakers stumble against the Bullets or end up in any kind of tie for the sixth post-season spot, they currently lag behind their opponents on points differential, and would need some big wins for themselves and big defeats for others to turn that around.
McCarron remains oblivious to these repercussions.
"I usually leave the maths to everyone else, because they're better at it," insisted the veteran point guard. "From our perspective, there are four games left, we're on nine wins and chasing No.13 - it's as simple as that.
"If we don't get to 13, it changes the maths even less in our favour, so we have everything to play for."
Two months ago, the four-time champions were riding high with a 7-3 record and playing incredible team basketball. A two-week break for international games coincided with the departure of American centre Freddie Gillespie and the arrival of NBA folk hero Tacko Fall, and they haven't been the same since.
While Gillespie was a vital role player in the competition's most miserly defence, at 2.29m (7ft 6in), Fall became more of a focal point and completely changed the team dynamic.
Injury has played a part and so has a five-game suspension to star guard Parker Jackson-Cartwright, who shoved a referee out of frustration, as the Breakers went on an eight-game losing skid.
McCarron, 32, isn't ready to offer his analysis of where things went wrong - there will be a time and place for that to happen, when the dust settles on a campaign that also saw him chalk up 250 NBL games.
"Usually, we'd sit down at the end of the year and reflect, and have some exit interviews to talk about the nitty gritty of what went wrong or what went right," he said. "I think we had a great start to the year and then didn't make adjustments as players on the court.
"There are always games you look back on and say, 'Gee, if we'd just won that game, we'd be fine'. That probably happened two or three times, and I'm sure it's the same with every team that misses out.
"It's easy in hindsight, but there are a couple of games where I look back and think it would be really, really nice to have those ones back."
With a largely newlook roster and new coaching staff, the Breakers were underwhelming in pre-season and probably took everyone by surprise when they started the schedule strongly, especially with the distraction of a two-week NBA exhibition tour thrown in.
By late November, other teams had a chance to scout the league highflyers and jumped on them hard, when they returned from the international window.
"We definitely didn't perform at the same level as before the break," agrees McCarron. "That's something we need to reflect on at the right time and have a look at why.
"The fact is we haven't executed, and maybe other teams got a lot better and we didn't. It's hard to say, but we certainly haven't had the success we had in that first block.
"In this league, once everyone gets a look at you, there's only 10 teams and everyone plays each other three times and sometimes four, so the margins are very small."
After facing Brisbane on Friday - the team they beat in their season-opener - the Breakers cross the Tasman for the last time in the regular season to visit Adelaide on Sunday, before hosting Cairns (1 February) and Illawarra (5 February) at Auckland's Spark Arena.
