BNZ now expects house prices to lift 2-4 percent over the calendar year. Photo: RNZ / Alexander Robertson
Another major bank has revised down its forecast for how far house prices will increase this year.
The first half of the year has been sluggish for the property market, with prices moving about half-a-percent, according to Cotality.
ANZ revised its forecast down in May, and then again on Tuesday.
It said it now expected prices to increase 2.5 percent over 2025 instead of 4.5 percent previously.
It also reduced its expectations for next year to a 5 percent lift.
It said falling interest rates were helping the housing market.
"Along with easing credit conditions, this has seen house sales volumes lift towards their historical average and house prices stabilise following declines in 2024. However, the upswing in
house prices has been muted compared to other recent easing cycles."
BNZ said it, too, has lowered its expectations.
Its chief economist Mike Jones said it now expected house prices would lift 2 percent to 4 percent over the calendar year, instead of the 5 percent to 7 percent it forecast previously. That would mean that prices would end the year about where they were in mid-2020.
"We haven't changed any of our interest rate views. The Official Cash Rate and short-term mortgage rates are expected to fall a little further. We nevertheless still see the value in the mortgage fixing decision as tilted more toward longer fixed terms."
Lower mortgage rates were creating activity in the housing market but the recovery was "creaky and tentative", he said.
Jones said while 15 percent more houses were selling than the same time last year, about in line with the long-term average, there was still a large number of homes available for sale. That meant buyers had a lot of choice and did not have to bid up prices to secure a property.
"Unsold inventory remains around 10-year highs. Buyers have both more time and more choice. Recent local council property (de)valuations in Wellington and now Auckland just reinforce this tilt in the balance of market power."
He said the excess inventory could take longer to work through than some people expected because of a "demand sag" in the middle of the year. The labour market was also weak and migration soft.
Jones said he expected prices to lift 5 percent next year.
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