Rabuka and Bainimarama, in January 2018 Photo: Fijian Government/Facebook
An Indigenous political commentator believes that Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka will make sure his predecessor Frank Bainimarama cannot contest next year's general election.
The convicted former Prime Minister Bainimarama originally seized power in a military coup in 2006 and is appealing his corruption conviction in the Court of Appeal in July.
Bainimarama's right-hand man, former Attorney-General Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, told RNZ Pacific last week that there is a groundswell of support for the former PM, which would pave the way for him to stand.
"People want him back," Sayed-Khaiyum said.
However, Canterbury University's distinguished professor Steven Ratuva said Bainimarama faces significant legal barriers.
"Rabuka, his arch-rival, will make sure that his conviction is not quashed, plus he is facing two more criminal charges," he said.
"Not only that, but the 2013 Constitution disqualified him from contesting an election within eight years of a conviction."
Bainimarama was the highest-polling candidate in the 2022 elections, receiving over 29 percent (136,829) of total votes.
In response to Sayed-Khaiyum's comments, Rabuka said Bainimarama cannot contest the 2026 election.
He told local media that even if Bainimarama's conviction were quashed by the Appeal Court, there are other cases against him in a lower court.
"Popularity is not an issue or criterion to stand in elections," he was quoted as saying by FijiLive.
"There are more people than [Bainimarama] who cannot stand because of their conviction."
When asked if Ratuva thought Bainimarama posed any threat to the ruling People's Alliance Party (PAP), he said: "He might, but the question is, does he have enough political clout and support to make a comeback?
"That's a question that has to be tested in the election itself if he is ever able to contest one."
He said that while Bainimarama was once very popular in Fiji, his current status is unclear.
"People will claim there's a lot of support for him, but that still has to be tested.
"There has been a lot of criticism of the current government, and that would have diverted people's preferences away from [the ruling PAP] in the next election.
"It is going to be an interesting election in terms of the way in which the votes will go," Ratuva said.
"Relaunching his FijiFirst Party, which was deregistered in July last year, would be a big ask for Bainimarama."
He said whether that cohesion exists remains to be seen.
"It would take a significant amount of energy to bring the party together again. Perhaps under a different guise, a different name, a reinvention. But I think [it] would be a huge struggle," he said.
Seven parties have registered to contest the election so far, and a further 15 proposed parties are yet to gain enough support to register, according to the Fijian Elections Office.
Ratuva said this will mean the vote is even more fragmented.
"When there is controversy around how the government is being run, you're bound to see a lot of parties trying to take advantage and fill the void."
"However, many of them will not prove viable. Whoever wins the election will have to form a coalition with two, three, or more smaller parties," he added.
Bainimarama was head of Fiji's military in 2006 when he staged the country's fourth coup in 20 years.
He deposed the late Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase and became Prime Minister in 2007.
Bainimarama returned Fiji to democracy with a general election in 2014, when his FijiFirst Party had a landslide victory.
However, his administration was accused of being dictatorial due to allegations of bullying, intimidation of opponents, human rights abuses, and suppression of the media.
He won the elections for a second time in 2018, but only managed to secure a little over 50 percent of the total votes to lead a majority government.
Bainimarama attempted to consolidate his power as the longest-serving Fiji Prime Minister in 2022, while going up against his arch rival, Rabuka, a former military strongman and coup maker himself.
However, despite being the largest party in parliament, he failed to secure the majority of seats and a coalition government was needed.
The result hinged on kingmaker Viliame Gavoka, then the leader of the Social Democratic Liberal Party (Sodelpa).
Sodelpa chose to enter into a coalition with Rabuka's PAP and the National Federation Party, ousting Bainimarama and ending his 16-year reign.
Bainimarama resigned from parliament in March 2023 after copping a three year suspension for sedition.
He was jailed in May last year, alongside the former police chief Sitiveni Qiliho, for perverting the course of justice.
However, he was released from prison last November, just six months into his one-year sentence, following a comprehensive review by the Fiji Corrections Service.
