Maclellan says the economic situation in New Caledonia is dire. Photo: AFP
The French Overseas Minister Manuel Valls will be in New Caledonia from Saturday - eight months after violence civil unrest tore the territory apart.
Valls, appointed in December, has already spearheaded talks with both the pro- and anti-independence groups, and more are planned over the next week.
Journalist Nic Maclellan spoke with RNZ Pacific about the changes in attitudes that have emerged in Paris since last year's violence.
(The transcript has been edited for brevity and clarity.)
Nic Maclellan: Over the last few weeks, there's been a series of meetings in Paris between France's Overseas Minister Manuel Valls and six delegations of New Caledonian political leaders. They've been bilateral meetings so Valls and other French officials have met individually with key leaders from both the independence movement, FLNKS, and also the conservative anti-independence parties.
He will then fly this coming Saturday, 22 February, for an eight-day visit to New Caledonia in the hope of kick-starting discussions about a new political statute.
Those negotiations have been stalled for years effectively, and because of the particular economic and political tensions that have risen since six months of conflict last year.
Don Wiseman: There must have been some sort of tacit agreement that there was a need for change?
NMac: That's always been the case. The independence movement has recognised that there have to be changes in things like the electoral roll, the Nouméa Accord, the framework agreement that's governed New Caledonia for 25 years and led to three referendums on self-determination, which were held between 2018/2021.
But this agreement, which has governed politics in New Caledonia for all this time, said if there's no 'yes' vote, yes for independence, all parties should meet to work out a way forward. That hasn't happened effectiely because over the last couple of years, there's been a lot of criticism about the French State from the independence movement.
So we've now moved to a stage where people are ready to start talking. How long that will take is difficult to tell, because there are still fundamental differences between some of the more conservative anti-independence parties, the so called loyalist bloc, and the largest independence groups, who still want a pathway to independence. Squaring that circle will be very difficult.
DW: This whole issue of ensuring that the Kanak vote was not going to be outnumbered that will go by the wayside.
NMac: No, that's still on the table. The FLNKS in 2018, before the first referendum, said that there was a recognition that the restricted electorate for the three provinces, the Congress, the government of New Caledonia, should be expanded. But they've always said that should be part of a global agreement.
There are some locally-born New Caledonians who, for various technical reasons, can't vote for the local political institutions. They can vote for the French presidency, the National Assembly, the European Parliament. They can't vote locally. So there's a recognition that the technical definition of who's a New Caledonian needs to be expanded.
But the FLNKS has said for years and years, this must be part of a global agreement. Basically a trade-off: we give you something, you give us something. And what's striking is just a week ago, on French media Valls said, 'we can't just expand the electoral body if there's not an overarching global agreement'.
Now that's the independence movement's position, that any changes to voting rights has to be part of a package, and indeed, that was the crisis last year trying to drive the independence movement, particularly the largest party, Union Caledonian, to the negotiating table.
President Macron unilaterally tried to change the definition of who could vote, potentially adding thousands of extra voters, mostly anti-independence voters, to the voting rolls. He triggered the conflict that's seen incredible economic destruction. Hundreds of people lost their jobs, 2600 arrests, 14 dead.
It's been a tragedy for New Caledonia, and now we find the French coming back to the point, yes, voting rights has to be part of an overarching deal. We'll see in coming weeks whether people can transcend the differences that remain, and they're pretty sharp differences, to come to a package that will be acceptable to all.
Nic Maclellan Photo: International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons
DW: Let's just look back at this period of violence and the outcomes. Where is the territory at now? I see it's got more money from Paris, but it was in a horrendous situation there for a long period. Has it moved on at all from there?
NMac: No, the economic, political, social, cultural legacies of that six months of conflict starting on 13 May 2024, are still with the territory. The economic situation's dire. Hundreds of businesses were badly damaged or shuttered...
DW: 10,000 people apparently left. I guess a lot of those were business people?
NMac: Yeah, and a lot of them are French nationals who've decided, after a period of uncertainty, it is time to go. Some New Caledonians, but mostly French-born nationals, which has changed once again the voting rights.
The nickel industry, the backbone of the economy, is in terrible strife that began before the crisis. But since then, exports have dropped. A couple of the major smelters are in care and maintenance, rather than operation or production. When I was there last, I interviewed the head of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and he said, although the conflict has stopped the protests and fighting, many businesses, for example, can't get reinsured because the insurance companies won't cover rioting.
So, if you're a small business, person who's been damaged, business been damaged during the conflict, wants to get operations going again, but you can't get insurance. There are many people who are finding that there's also been a serious loss of technical capacity in the health sector and the education sector. Many hospitals are short staffed because it's estimated up to about 16 percent of the medical staff in New Caledonia have left.
Most of those are French public servants, not locals. There's no oncology doctors left. Five oncology doctors left New Caledonia, which impacts, obviously, treatment of people with cancer. Those sorts of structural problems in public services, in the economy, key professionals leaving...it's a really tough time for working people in New Caledonia, and that weighs on the political leaders, whether they support or oppose independence. The've got to deal with that economic crisis.
DW: All right. Well, you're in Wellington because of this Pacific islands Political Studies Association meeting. I'm sure there are people here from New Caledonia. What are they going to be saying?
NMac: I think they're going to be highlighting the remaining tensions about the way forward for the independence movement. Although there are divisions about how far and how fast it should be going, there's always a call for a pathway to independence.
Some of the more conservative leaders, however, in the anti-independence parties are vehemently opposed to that. They believe that the three referendums held in 2018/2021 finished the debate. The loyalists are quite angry, in fact, Overseas Minister Manuel Valls said we must not forget we are still in a decolonisation process, and some of the loyalists are really angry that even before he's come this week to talk about what are the next steps, he's reminding everyone that the Nouméa Accord process is a decolonisation process, and that remains on the table.
The loyalist parties have put forward a proposal about federalism. New Caledonia has three provinces. The Southern Province has always been the bastion of anti-independence leadership. The two other provinces, the Loyalty Islands and the North, have been managed by pro-independence Kanak leaders for more than 30 years. The notion of federalism basically says the south should cede from the rest of the country. They don't put it that bluntly, but partition is fiercely opposed by the independence people.
So there's divisions. Some wanting a pathway towards a new political status. Some wanting to keep the status quo within the French Republic, but with more powers to the southern province. There's a very big bridge to cross before people come to shake hands, as happened in 1988.
